Hoʻokumu 'ia nā haʻawina ma nā makahiki koho a me ke kūʻai' ana i ka makai
ʻO ka papa ma ka lalo o kaʻaoʻao e hōʻike ana i ka hoʻihoʻiʻana o ka S & P 500 Index no kēlā me kēia koho kohoʻana mai ka makahiki 1928. Ma ka nānāʻana, hiki iāʻoe keʻike i nā makahiki koho koho he 21 i koe he mau makahiki 3 wale nō kahi i loaʻa ai ka papahana S & P 500. ka hoʻihoʻi maikaʻiʻole i ka makahiki koho.
Ua hoʻopukaʻiaʻo Marshall D. Nickles, EdD, ma kēiaʻikepili i loko o kahi pepa i kapaʻiaʻo ka Pelekikena Pelekikena. Ma kāna hōʻike noiʻi kūpono e hōʻike ana i kahi kumukūʻai maikaʻi e hoʻolilo i kaʻOkakopa 1 o ka lua o ka makahiki o kahi'ōlelo pelekikena a kūʻai aku i ka lā 31 o Dekemapa i ka makahikiʻehā. Ma hope o ka waihoʻana i nāʻikepili no ka kākoʻoʻana i kēia papahana, ua'ōleloʻo ia:
"Akā, i ka wā wale nō e noʻonoʻo aiʻoe ua hoʻoholoʻoe i waho,ʻikeʻoe i kekahi kumu hou e hiki ke hōʻike i nā mea likeʻole. Eia kekahi lā, he hōʻike hou e hōʻike ana i kahi hana hou loa i ka helu helu kūʻai'āina. I loko o ka makahiki iwakāluakulia a pau, ua maikaʻi nā makahiki i waena o nā makahiki heʻumi i pau i ka "5" (1905, 1915, 1925, a me nā mea'ē aʻe)! "
ʻO ka mea āna e hana nei,ʻo ia ka mea like a kahi i aʻoʻia i kapaʻia heʻokoʻa behavioral e haʻi pinepine mai iā mākou. hiki iā mākou keʻike i nā'ōnaehana, akā,ʻaʻole ia heʻano pili ia i nā hoʻoholo a mākou e hana nei.
Ma kahi haʻawina e like me Marshall,ʻo ke Keʻena Kūiwai Kūleʻa o Wells Fargo,ʻo Dean A. Junkans, CFA, a me kā lākou Luna Hoʻolālā Kū'ē, James P. Estes, PhD, CFP (1) e hōʻike ana i ka hoʻihoʻiʻana o ka mākaʻi kūʻai i ka makahikiʻehā o kahi pelekikena ʻo ka manawa heʻelua manawa o ka hoʻihoʻiʻana i ka makahiki mua o ka manawa o ka pelekikena.
E hoʻohanaʻia kēiaʻikepili? Inā wale nō ke hoʻomauʻia ke kumu.
Ināʻoe eʻimi ana i kahi kumu, no ke aha e ho'āʻoʻole ai i ka Super Market Bowl Predictor. Ke'ōlelo nei ia "Inā lanakila nā pūʻulu i ka Superbowl i ka National Football League, e piʻi ka māka." Ināʻo ka pūʻali lanakila i ka mua o ka American Football League, e hōʻole ana ke kālepa. "
Hiki iāʻoe ke hoʻoholo i nā manaʻo e pili ana i nā kauwela o nā makahiki koho?
Ināʻoe e hoʻolimalima i kekahi kākā'ōlelo hoʻolaha iʻike i kaʻike ma luna nei. Hōʻike lākou iāʻoe i nā loiloi nui āu iʻike ai i nā makahiki he iwakalua i hala aku nei ināʻoe i komo i ka māhele kūʻai ma nā makahiki hope o ka'ōlelo Pelekikena a hele aku i nā makahiki mua.
Loaʻa paha, ua kūpono ka manaʻo o kēia kākā'ōlelo aʻo. Ua hiki paha iāʻoe ke manaʻolana i ka makahiki 2008, he lua manawa hoʻi ka hoʻihoʻiʻana o ka'eleka i ka 2005. (I ka makahiki 2005, ua hoʻihoʻiʻia ka S & P 500 Index i 4.90%.)
I ka manawa o ka hoʻololi koho o ka makahiki 2008, ināʻoe i hoʻolakoʻia i kaʻOkakopa 1 o 2006, a hiki i ka lā 31 o Kekemapa 2008, e 6.8% ka nui o kāu hoʻolālā.
ʻAʻole i hana ka mamana no ka hoʻololi koho o 2008. Hiki iā 2016 ke nānā aku i waho! ʻOkakopa 1, 2015, i ka makahiki 2016 i puka mai ai e hoʻopuka i ka hoʻihoʻi maikaʻi maikaʻi.
He aha nā mea e mālama ai no 2020? He maikaʻi kou koho e like me kaʻu.
ʻO ka pilikia me ka hoʻokomo kālāʻana ma muli o ia mauʻanoʻikepili:ʻaʻole ia he ala maikaʻi e hele ai i ka hoʻoholoʻana i nā hoʻoholo waiwai. He meaʻoluʻolu ia, a ke hoʻokō nei i kēia manaʻo hohonu i ka manaʻo nui he nui nā kānaka i loaʻa he ala e "paʻi ai i ka mākeke", aʻo kahi ma waho iʻike i ka hana.
Ināʻaʻoleʻoe,ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o ka hoʻokomoʻana i ke ala hōʻailona, palekana, e pili ana i kaʻike i ka pōʻino a me ka hoʻihoʻiʻana , ka hoʻololiʻana, a me ka kūʻaiʻana i nā kālā hōʻemi waiwai haʻahaʻa no ka wā lōʻihi, me ka mea e lanakila i ka koho. A iʻole he'ōlelo punahele nui ma ka'ōlelo hoʻokele, "E like me ka nānāʻana i ka pahinu pa'ū a nānā i ka uluʻana o ka mauʻu. Inā makemakeʻoe i ka hauʻoli ... hele i Las Vegas. "-Paul Samuelson
(1) Nānā a me ke Kānaka:ʻO Kū lākou? Hoʻopukaʻia ma kaʻOkakopa 18, 2007, ma kahi kūmole kūʻaiʻo Market Market ma Wells Fargo.
Kākauʻia e Dean A. Junkans, CFA, Luna Nui Kūleʻaleʻa a me James P Estes, Ph.D., CFP, Kōmike Hana Kakiwaena.
ʻO ka hoʻihoʻiʻana o nā kūʻai kūʻai kūʻai makahiki kūʻai
No kaʻikeʻana i kaʻike kūʻai kūʻaiʻana ma nā makahiki makahiki mai ka makahiki 1900 eʻike i ka PDF i hoʻopiliʻia e ka MFS® Investment Management i kapaʻiaʻo Primaries, mau kūkā, a me nā koho balota ... oh , my !.
Hōʻikeʻia ma lalo o ka papa hōʻike nā Hōʻailona Kū'ē no kēlā me kēia Makahiki koho Mai ka makahiki 1928
ʻO kaʻikepili ma lalo iho nei mai ka waihona Dimensional Funds Book Matrix.
| S & P 500 Stock Market Returns I nā Makahiki koho | ||
| Makahiki | E hoʻi | ʻO nā koho |
| 1928 | 43.6% | ʻO Hoover me Smith |
| 1932 | -8.2% | Roosevelt vs. Hoover |
| 1936 | 33.9% | Roosevelt vs. Landon |
| 1940 | -9.8% | Roosevelt vs. Willkie |
| 1944 | 19.7% | Roosevelt vs. Dewey |
| 1948 | 5.5% | Truman vs. Dewey |
| 1952 | 18.4% | Eisenhower vs Stevenson |
| 1956 | 6.6% | Eisenhower vs Stevenson |
| 1960 | .50% | Kennedy vs. Nixon |
| 1964 | 16.5% | ʻO Johnson a me Goldwater |
| 1968 | 11.1% | Nixon a me Humphrey |
| 1972 | 19.0% | Nixon vs. McGovern |
| 1976 | 23.8% | Carter vs. Ford |
| 1980 | 32.4% | Reagan vs. Carter |
| 1984 | 6.3% | Reagan vs. Mondale |
| 1988 | 16.8% | Bush vs. Dukakis |
| 1992 | 7.6% | ʻO Clinton a me Bush |
| 1996 | 23% | ʻO Clinton vs. Dole |
| 2000 | -9.1% | ʻO Bush vs. Gore |
| 2004 | 10.9% | Bush vs. Kerry |
| 2008 | -37% | ʻO Obama me McCain |
| 2012 | 16% | ʻO Mike vs. Romney |
| 2016 | ++ | ʻO Trump vs. Clinton |
| 2020 | ? | ? |