Pehea e noʻonoʻo ai i nā kumukūʻai kūʻai

He Kūponoʻole ia e kau i ke kumukūʻai i ka uku hoʻokahi no ka meaʻo ka ponoʻo ia ka'ōlelo

Ka manawa no ka pop-quiz waihona. Ināʻoe $ 1,000 i ke kālā a hāʻawiʻia i kahi koho ma waena o ka kūʻaiʻana i 100 mau'āpana o ABC i $ 10 ma kaʻeke, aiʻole 5 mau'āpana o ka hui XYZ i $ 125, aʻo wai kahi āu e koho ai? He nui ka poʻe kālā e hele no ka hoʻokahi mau'āpana kālā o ABC no ka mea, ua emi ke kumu kūʻai. "Ke kūʻai nei nā $ 10 i nā mea kūʻaiʻole," ke hoʻopaʻapaʻa lākou, "ʻo ka $ 125 no kēlā me kēia kumukūʻai kūʻai no nā mea'ē aʻe heʻoi aku ka pōʻino a he waiwai nō hoʻi no kuʻu leʻaleʻa."

Ināʻaeʻoe i kēia manaʻo, hikiʻoe i kahi hopohopo. ʻO kaʻoiaʻiʻo,ʻaʻoleʻoe i lawa kaʻike eʻike ai i kahi waiwai e kūʻaiʻia ma muli o ka uku pānaʻi wale nō. Hiki iāʻoe keʻike, ma hope o ka nānā ponoʻana, eʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o ka $ 125 kūʻai ma mua o ka $ 10 kūʻai! Pehea? E nānā pono kākou.

E hoʻokaʻaʻike i nā'āpana kūʻai kūʻai a me nā kiʻi kūʻai -ʻO ka hōʻailona Coca-Cola

ʻO kēlā me kēia mahele o nā kumupaa i loko o kāu kōpena e hōʻike ana i ka mana liʻiliʻi i loko o kahiʻoihana. I ka makahiki 2001, loaʻa iā Coca-Cola $ 3.696 piliona ma ka waiwai . ʻO ka pahu wai inuʻawaʻawa he 2.5 paila kālā ka nui. ʻO ia hoʻi,ʻo kēlā me kēia o kēlā me kēiaʻona e lilo i ka waiwai o 1 / 2,500,000,000 o kaʻoihana (aiʻole 0.0000000004%) a hāʻawi iāʻoe i $ 1.48 o nā waiwai ($ 3,696 waiwai i puʻunaueʻia e 2.5 bili kālā = $ 1.48 i kēlā me kēia mahele).

Manaʻoʻo kaʻoihana kūʻai kālā o ka hui ma kahi $ 50 ma kēlā me kēia mahele a me nā luna hoʻonohonoho o Coca-Cola e manaʻo nei heʻoi aku kaʻoi aku o kaʻoi aku o nā kumukūʻai no nā mea kūʻai kālā.

A laila, haʻi lākou i ka hoʻokaʻawaleʻana . Inā hoʻolahaʻo Coke i 2-1 puʻupuʻu kālā , e hoʻonui pālua ka huina kālā i nā mahele (i kēia helu, e piʻi ana ka huina kālā i 5 biliona mai 2.5 bila). E hāʻawi ana ka pūʻulu i hoʻokahi mahele no kēlā me kēia māhele a kekahi mea kālā i loaʻa iā ia, eʻoki ana i ka kaʻana like i ka hapalua (e like me, ināʻoe he 100 mau'āpana ma $ 50 i kāu pakuhi i ka lā Pōʻakahi, ma hope o ka māhele, e loaʻa iāʻoe he 200 mau puʻu ma $ 25 o kēlā me kēia.

ʻO kēlā me kēia mahele he 1 / 5,000,000,000 ka nui o kēia hui, aiʻole 0.0000000002%. Ma muli o kaʻoiaʻiʻo o kēlā me kēia māhele e pani nei i ka hapalua o ka mea nona ka mana i hanaʻia ma mua o ka māhele,ʻo ia wale nō ka kuleana o ka hapa o nā waiwai, aiʻole $ 0.74.

Pono ka mea waiwai e nīnau iā ia iho he aha ka mea maikaʻi - e uku ana i $ 50 no $ 1.48 i nā uku, aiʻole e uku i $ 25 no $ 0.74 ma ka uku kālā? ʻAʻole! I ka hopena, ua puka like ka mea kālā kālā. ʻO ke kūkāʻana he kanaka ia e loaʻa ana he $ 100 pākēka e noi ana iʻelua $ 50. ʻOiai e nānā nei i kēia manawa ua nui kona kālā,ʻaʻole i loli konaʻike waiwai. ʻO ka mea kūponoʻole, pono e hōʻoia he mea lapuwale ia e kali ai i kahi mahele mahele ma mua o ka kūʻaiʻana i nā hoa o kahi hui.

E hoʻokuʻu i ka uku no ka waiwai

Ke hana nei ia mea a pau i kahi mea koʻikoʻi loa: e puʻunaue i ka uku no ka mea he meaʻole. He kumukuai kaʻana e pili ana i nā uku a me nā waiwai waiwai e hoʻoholo ana inā pauʻole ka mana o kahi'āina.

Ke hoʻi nei i ka nīnau aʻu i nīnau ai i ka hoʻomakaʻana o kēiaʻatikala, e hoʻokomo i kēia mau mea:

ʻO ke kūʻaiʻana o ka waiwai ABC i ke kumukūʻai o ke kaʻina waiwai (p / e ratio) o 67 ($ 10 ma ka pāhele i puʻunaueʻia e $ 0.15 EPS = 66.67).

ʻO ka waiwai XYZ, ma kekahiʻaoʻao, ke kālepaʻana i ka ap / e o 3.57 ($ 125 ma ka māhele i puʻunaueʻia e $ 35 EPS = 3.57 p / e).

I nā hua'ōlelo'ē aʻe, ke uku neiʻoe i $ 66.67 no kēlā me kēia $ 1 i nā kālā mai ka polokalamu ABC,ʻoiai ke hāʻawi neiʻo XYZ iāʻoe i $ 1 i nā kālā no $ 3.57 wale nō. ʻO nā mea'ē aʻe a pau, ua kūponoʻole ka nui o nā mea'ē aʻe keʻole ka hoʻolaha nuiʻana o ka pūʻulu ABC.

ʻO kekahi mauʻoihana he kulekele no ka hoʻokaʻawaleʻoleʻana i kā lākou mau kuleana, e hāʻawi ana i ka pānaʻi kālā e like me ka nui o ka loiloi nuiʻana i nā mea hoʻolako iʻikeʻoleʻia. ʻO ka lapaau Washington Post, i kēia manawa, ua kūʻaiʻia ma waena o $ 500 a me $ 700 no kēlā me kēia pāhele me ka EPS o kahi $ 22. Ua kūʻai akuʻo Berkshire Hathaway i ka $ 70,000 ma ka pāʻani me ka EPS o kahi $ 2,000. No laila,ʻo Berkshire Hathaway , inā e lilo i $ 45,000 ma ka pāʻani, hiki ke kūʻai aku ma mua o Wal-Mart ma kahi $ 70 ma ka pāʻani.

ʻO ka pānaʻi pili likeʻole.