ʻO kahi meaʻike hoʻokahi e hiki ai ke kōkua iā Rational Investors kūkulu i kahi Fortune
Ka Difference Ma waena o ka Intrinsic a me ke Kānāwai Kūleʻa
- ʻO ke kumu waiwai:ʻO ka'eneke pili o ka pūnaewele kokoke e pili ana i kaʻauhau ma hope o kaʻauhau, nā kahe kālā i hoʻohālikelikeʻia i ka hōʻemi i waena o kēia manawa a me ka hopena o ka manawa.
- Ka uku kūʻai:ʻO nā mea'ē aʻe i makemake e uku iāʻoe no ka waiwai i kekahi manawa i hāʻawiʻia
ʻO ke kumukūʻai nui a me ke kumukūʻai kūʻai pinepine pinepine i luna o ka manawa no ka mea ua maʻalahi ka poʻe i ka manawa e malu ai ka noho aʻaʻole he mea'ē aʻe e holo ana i ka honua, akā hiki ke kau i nā wā a iʻole nāʻano e ulu likeʻole ai lākou.
ʻIkeʻoe i kēia ma kahi haʻahaʻa, inā maopopoʻoeʻaʻole paha. E noʻonoʻoʻoe e loaʻa ana iāʻoe kahi ice cream e kū kokoke ana i nā ballfields kaulana ma kekahi kūlanakauhale nui. Mai ka kūʻaiʻana i nā haʻalulu, nā'ālē, nā maile maiʻa, nā hau hau a me nā'īlio wela, a me Coca-Cola, hāʻawi ia i $ 30,000 ma ka makahiki ma ka loaʻa kālā ma hope o kaʻauhau kālā ma kahi waiwai nui o $ 30,000. he waha wai-wai 100% hoʻi. I kēlā me kēia kauwela, hoʻolimalimaʻoe i kekahi mau'ōpio e holo ai, eʻike pono i ka holomua o nā mea, a e hōʻiliʻili i ke kahawai o ka uku.
ʻAʻole hiki ke ulu nui ma mua o ka hoʻonuiʻana, akā he mea kūʻai nui, inā heʻuʻuku,ʻoihana.
I kēia manawa, e noʻonoʻoʻoe ke hele mai kekahi iāʻoe a hāʻawi iāʻoe $ 5,000 e kūʻai. Eʻakaʻakaʻoe i mua o lākou. No ke aha mai? ʻOiai ināʻaʻoleʻoe i hōʻeuʻeu e hana i ka helu kūpono maoli o ka helu, uaʻikeʻoe i ka waiwai kūʻaiʻo ia e hāʻawi nei he hapa wale nō ia o ka waiwai nui.
ʻAʻohe ala e lawe aiʻoe i kahi mea kūponoʻole. I kēia manawa, kiʻiʻia kēia mea iāʻoe $ 3,000,000. E leleʻoe ma luna o ka puʻuwai no ka meaʻoiai me ka laweʻoleʻana i kahi calculator, uaʻikeʻoe i ke kumukūʻaiʻoihana e mōhai nuiʻia ana ma mua o ka waiwai nui. ʻAʻole hiki iāʻoe ke hana i kēlā mea nui mai ka hauʻopa iʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o kāu laweʻana i ke kālā a hoʻolilo iā ia i kekahi mea'ē aʻe.
Nā Waiwai Huahua
ʻO nā hua waiwai nui ma ka honua heʻano like. He kūlike ka mea kūʻai i nāʻoihana e like me ka hau hau. Ponoʻoe e nānā i ka mea e loaʻa ana iāʻoe no ke kumukūʻai ma kēlā me kēia manawa (aʻaʻole e wikiwiki e kūʻai aku i kahi kuleana nui no ka meaʻoi aku kaʻoi aku o ke kumukūʻaiʻoi aku ma mua o kona waiwai nui i kēlā me kēia manawa,ʻo ke kālā maoli - ka hoʻololiʻana, ka waiwai o ka hanauna - ke hana pinepineʻia ma o ka mālamaʻana i nā mea hoʻohana kālā nui ma luna o 25+ makahiki,ʻaʻole kūʻai. Inā kānaluaʻoe, e hakakā wauʻaʻoleʻoe e nānā nui i ka mīkini a iʻole ka moʻolelo. Ehia mau kānaka i hoʻokiʻekiʻeʻia no ka loaʻa wikiwiki he 20% kūʻai i ke kākoʻo e like me Coca-Cola ma ke kumukuai hoʻokahi a kūʻai lilo aku i kekahi, e ho'āʻo mau ana e hoʻokahuli e like me kahi'āpana o ka waiwai paʻa? Ma kahi o ka la i hanau ai au, hookahi $ 10,000 puu dala ma ia la i ka la i hanau ai au, ua hooikaika hou i ko lakou mau puu dala, a aole i hana i kekahi mea e ae, aia lakou e noho nei i $ 1,020,939 ma ke kula, ua ike i ko lakou ku ana i ka 10,109.39%, a ua hauoli Aia he 15.09% ulu ulu makahiki .
Inā ua hoʻokuʻu lākou i $ 10,000 ma ka makahiki i loko o kēlā mau kikowaena'āpana'ōmaʻomaʻo no nā Atlantge-juggernaut, he mea kupanaha loa ia.
Ka Hoʻonuiʻana i ke kālā me kahi Kōnae Paipai Hoʻololi
ʻOiai inā loaʻa iāʻoe i kekahi manawa kekahi banekeʻoihanaʻoihana,ʻoiai e hanaʻia pahaʻoe e ka'ikepilihelu, hiki iāʻoe ke hoʻolilo i ke kālā i loko o kahi kōpili iʻoi aku ka maikaʻi no ka pilikanaka o ka pilikino. No ka hāʻawiʻana i kahi hōʻailona o ka honua, he mea hoʻokele waiwai lōʻihi e like me Eastman Kodak i ka manawa e mahalo ai i ka kiʻekiʻe o kona kaulana,ʻaʻole loa ia e hele kaʻawale me kaʻole o ka waiwai i $ 0 no nā mahele. ke paleʻana i ka māheleʻokoʻa. (ʻO ke kaulike pololei o ka paʻakikī e pili ana ināʻoe i hoʻohou i nā māhele i Eastman Kodak pono'ī aiʻole i ka pakuhi paʻa loa.
Hiki ke hoʻopiliʻia nā pāʻoihana / uku kūʻai ma waena o Coca-Colas a me Eastman Kodaks o ke ao nei ma o ka hoʻohanaʻana i ka hoʻopiliʻana i nā papahana .)
Pehea aʻu e nānā ai i ka waiwai nui no koʻu Home Pono, Pakihi, a me nā Pakuhi'ē aʻe ma lalo o koʻu kuleana
Inā paha no mākou iho, nā pūʻuluʻohana o ka hale, nā pūʻulu o nā pūʻuluʻoihana a mākou e mālama ai, a me nā pūʻulu o kaʻohana a me nā hoaaloha i noi mai iā mākou e mālama i ko lākou ola kālā ma o ka mālamaʻana i kā lākou ola mālama ola, ma ka'ā'ī o kā mākou ka ulu lāʻau, he mau kumu no mākou no ka mālamaʻana i ka mea e nānā ai kahi e pono ai: Loaʻa ka waiwai nui i hiki iā mākou ke noho ma laila no nā makahiki he nui. He kumuhana i hana maikaʻi loa iā mākou a uaʻae mākou e loaʻa i ke kūʻokoʻa kālā ma mua o ka nui o nā huakaʻi.
- I ka manawa e hōʻike pono mai ana nā pānaʻi manawa kūpono iā mākou i ka mea i mālamaʻia kahi, kahi o kēlā me kēia māhele o kaʻoihana e hōʻike ana i kā mākou mahele like o nā kūʻai, nā waiwai, nā puʻunaue, a me nā kālā i hoʻopaʻaʻia, me ka waiwai kūʻai. ʻO ka inoa o ka mālā hoʻonohonohoʻana o ke kolamu, ua kapaʻiaʻo "Mr. Market" mai ka moʻolelo kaulana loa o Benjamin Graham . Keʻole kā mākou hoa pili waiwai e hāʻawi iā mākou i nā kūlana kūʻokoʻa i ko mākou kūʻai aku i ko mākou mau peke,ʻaʻole mākou makemake. I kekahi mau mea,ʻaʻole mākou makemake e kūʻai aku (e like me ka mea iʻike pinepineʻia e nā mea hōʻiliʻili waiwai, e like me Warren Buffett , me ke aha e hiki ai iāʻoe ke pani aku iā Coca-Cola a loaʻa iā ia keʻanoʻoiaʻiʻo e hana maikaʻiʻia i ka makahiki e hiki mai ana?). Eia kekahi pae e hōʻike ana i ka loaʻaʻana o ka waiwai a me ka puʻunaue i nā lā i ka wā i emi ai ke kālepa, hoʻomaka mākou eʻike i ke kūʻana o ka hoʻi houʻana, e hoʻonui i ko mākou kūlana i ka wā e paʻa mau ana ke kumuhana paʻa.
- Ke nīnau mau nei mākou iā mākou iho no kēlā me kēia hui e mālama pono nei mākou i kahi hoʻolālā, "Pehea e hana ai kēia hana i ke kālā? He aha nā kumu e hiki ai ke hana? He aha nā mea e hoʻonui ai? hiki i kahi meaʻoliʻoli e like me ka mea nāna i hāʻawi aku ka uku e ukuʻia e pili ana i ka uku o ka mea nona ka waiwai? " Ināʻaʻole hiki iā mākou keʻike iāʻoe kahi i hele mai ai ke kālā a me keʻano o ke ala e hele ai i loko o ko mākou mau lima,'ōlelo mākou, "Mahalo, akā,ʻaʻohe hoʻomaikaʻi."
- Ke nānā wikiwiki nei mākou i ka pōkole a nīnau mākou iā mākou iho, "Inā e hoʻopauʻia nā kumukūʻai kūʻai no nā makahikiʻelima e hiki mai ana, aʻaʻole hiki iā mākou ke kūʻai a kūʻai aku i kekahi mea, e moe maikaʻi mākou i ka pō i nā mea a mākou e hana nei, i nā kumukūʻai a mākou e hana nei? " Inā pane ka pane, "ʻAʻole", ua hoʻololiʻia. Hana nā mea pupule, e ulu mai ana i nā hoʻokūkū hoʻokūkū i ka hoʻomakaʻana o ke kaua honua. ʻOiai makemake kekahi e ola i ka pōʻino, ua ulu aʻe kāua me kaʻu kāne me kahi kālā kālā a ua pono mākou e hana i kā mākou ala i ke kulanui,ʻo ka mea mua i loko o ko mākou mauʻohana e loaʻa i ke kula. Hoʻomaopopo mākou i ka'ōlelo kahiko, "E waiwai wale nōʻoe". ʻAʻole mākou makemake e "hoʻi e hoʻi",ʻoiai. Ma ka hoʻoliloʻana iā mākou i ka mea nui loa no ka nele i ke kālā, hiki iā mākou ke hoʻokaʻawale i nā loli ma ke kumukūʻai (ʻikeʻana i kahiʻoihana ma lalo o 40% ma ka pepa,ʻaʻole i nui ka manaʻo) mai ke kumu waiwai (ʻikeʻole ka hoʻokele waiwai hoʻokele waiwai ma kahiʻoihana ma muli o nā hoʻololi a iʻole nā pilikia kūikawā kūikawā, nā mea i hala maoli, nā poho mau loa). ʻO kahi hiʻohiʻona maikaʻi: E nānā i nā mea e hanaʻia nei i ka mahele o nā meaʻaila hinu i kēia manawa, aʻu i kākau ai e pili ana i nā mea nui ma kaʻu blog pūnaewele. Ua kāpikipikiʻia nā'eneke Blue like ExxonMobil i ka S & P 500 i nā makahiki he 30 i hala iho nei, me ka hopena hope loa i anaʻia i ka hāʻuleʻoleʻana o ka'ōpala (e haʻi ana iāʻoe i ka nui o ke kikowaena) akā, ma ke ala, ponoʻoe e hoʻolimalima manawa o 3, 5, aiʻole 7 mau makahiki ma kahi iʻike aiʻoe i 25% a 50% mau poho ma kāu hōʻike hoʻopuka .
- Ua hoʻolālā mākou i kā mākou papahana holoʻokoʻa e aʻo i nā mea e like me nā kānāwai GAAP a me nā kālā kālā. Hoʻohana mākou i kēlā mau loea e eli i loko o ka waihoʻana o ka 10-K a me ka hōʻike makahiki e nānā ana i nā hōʻailona hōʻailona, e like me nā haʻawina paakiki e pili ana i ka loaʻaʻana o ka waihona kālā a iʻole nā mea i hōʻoleʻia e like me ke kūponoʻole o nā mālama kuhi ma nā waiwai a me nā ' He mau manawa mākou e hele ai i kahiʻoihana e nānā i nā mea kūpono no ka loaʻaʻana o kekahi mea e waiho ana iā mākou e hōʻoluʻolu e kanu i nā haneli he mauʻaoʻao i loko o ka hōʻike.
- ʻOiaiʻaʻole mākou e puʻunaue i nā mea waiwai no kēlā me kēia - ua nui ka nui o ke kālā e kūʻai aku i nā meaʻaiʻole e uku i nā'āpana - hiki iā mākou ke hoʻomanawanui inā nui nā makahiki no kā mākou palapala puke e hana ai no ka mea pinepineʻole,ʻaʻole mākou, ae hōʻiliʻili i nā kahawai, me ka laweʻana i kā mākou mau waiwai no ka mahaloʻole i nā māhele, e hana e like me ka hoʻolimalima houʻana i ke kumukūʻai kūʻai, hoʻokuʻu kālā i hoʻokuʻuʻia a hoʻokuʻu iā mākou e hana ma kahi'ē aʻe. ʻAʻole hiki iāʻoe ke hōʻailona i ke kālā. Ua hiki mai ka leka aʻaʻole paha. ʻO ka uku i ukuʻia ma kēlā me kēia māhele a hoʻonui i ka wikiwiki ma mua o ka nui o ka hoʻonui aiʻoleʻole.
Hoʻohuiʻia, kōkua iā mākou e hoʻomau i ko mākou manaʻo i nā mea kūpono. ʻAʻole mākou e lilo i ka hiamoe i ka wā e wāwahiʻia ai ke kālepa'āina . ʻIke mākou i ka nui o ke kālā i mālamaʻia i loko o kā mākou waihona . Kūleʻa mākou i ka pale aku i nā hōʻai'ē ma ka hopena o nā manawa aʻaʻole loa mākou e hoʻohana i kahi kēkelē hiki i ka pilikia. Loaʻa iā mākou ka paʻa,ʻo ia hoʻi,ʻaʻole e hiki i kekahi ke puhi iā mākou inā makemake mākou e lawe i nā makahiki 5-10 e pili ai i ka manaʻo maikaʻi e nānā pono i ka pepa no kekahi manawa. Ua hoʻonohonoho mākou i ko mākou mau pūʻulu a me nā ola a puni nā pūnaewele e hoʻonele ai mākou i nā hana hoʻolālā lōʻihi. Hiki iāʻoe ke koho, ināʻoe e makemake maoli.