E hoʻomaka ana i ka makahiki 2000,ʻo ka nui o ka uku kūʻai o nā kumukūʻai a me ka uluʻana o nā mākeke kālepa ma nā kumukūʻai o ke kumukūʻai ua lilo i ka hoʻonui a me ka hōʻuluʻuluʻana i nā kumuhana o ke kumukūʻai o ka ukiuki.
Nā Huahana Lapaʻau Kūʻai
Ua hoʻomaopopo lōʻihiʻia heʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o nā kumukūʻai o nā mea kūʻai ma mua o ka nui o nā mea kūʻai'ē aʻe ma muli o keʻano o nā mea e pili ana i ka hoʻomehana waiwai.
ʻO nā'ōlelo'ē aʻe, inā makemakeʻoleʻia ke koiʻiaʻana o ke keleawe , hikiʻole i ka hōʻaho honua ke pane koke.
Pono eʻaeʻia nā mines a hoʻonohonohoʻia nā mea nānā. Pēlā nō,ʻaʻole hiki i nā mea kūʻai ke pani hou i kahi mea kila no kahi'ē aʻe i ka wā i ala ai nā uku.
He paʻakikī ka hopena o ka volatility akā uaʻikeʻia heʻano maikaʻiʻole no ka mea, hōʻoia mai me ka maopopoʻole o nā mea i ka wā e hiki mai ana. Keʻikeʻole nā mea hana a me nā mea hoʻohana aku i nā mea e hiki mai ana ma kēia mua aku, hiki i ka mea hikiʻole ke hoʻokomo i ka hoʻokomo houʻana i nā mea hana.
Wahi a kekahi pepa i paʻiʻia e ka Federal Reserve i ka makahiki 2012,ʻo ka makahiki heʻumi me ka makahiki 2002 a 2012, uaʻike nuiʻia ka hoʻonuiʻia o ka nui o nā kumukūʻai o nā kumukūʻai a me ka hoʻohālikeʻana o ke kumukūʻai i nā loli.
Ke ana i ka waiwai
Hoʻohālikelikeʻia ka loliʻana iʻoi aku ka nui ma mua o nā kuʻuna maʻamau i ke kumukūʻai maʻamau no ka mea i hāʻawiʻia.
Hōʻike nā mea kākau i ka emi o ka palena haʻahaʻa e hoʻemi ana i ke kumu kūʻai o ka ukana no ka mea, he mea kūʻai ka mea kūʻai i nā mea kūʻai nui loa, no laila, e hoʻonāukiuki ana i nā kumu kūʻai o ke kumukū manawa lōʻihi.
ʻAʻole naʻe ka hopena o nā haʻawina haʻawina haʻahaʻa, no ka mea, he nui ka noiʻana mai nā makamae e kū nei.
ʻIkeʻia e ka poʻe kākau e hoʻonui i ka volatility i loko o ka makahiki he umi o ka uluʻana o nā kānalua i nā maketi kūʻai (heluhelu: Ka uluʻana o China).
Hoʻolako pū ka pepa Pekelala Pekelala i ka hopena o ke kulekele pili kālā ma nā kumukūʻai kūʻai ma luna o ka hopena o nā mea waiwai.
Nā Mālā'Ile Waiwai a me ka Hua'Ōlelo'Oiho Kūlana
Ma ia manawa like nō, ua paiha aku ka'Āpana Kūkākūkā o'Alepaia i kahi pepa i hoʻokaho i ka hopena o nā kālepa kālā ma ka ukana kūʻai ukana.
Ma kēia pepa, ua'ōlelo nā mea kākau (1) no ka nui o nā kumukūʻai o nā mea kūʻai me nā kālepa kālā kālai'āina maikaʻi e like me nā mea kūʻai i nā makamua a me nā kālepa kālepa a me (2) uaʻikeʻia ka nui o ka hōʻuluʻulu i nā hanana i waena o nā huahana no ka loaʻaʻana o nāʻumeke kālā, nā kumu waiwai ka mea nui i kaʻikeʻana i nā kumukūʻai kūʻai,ʻaʻole ka nui a me ka uluʻana o nā mea waiwai.
Manaʻo lākou ma ka haʻiʻana i ka piʻiʻana o nā kumukūʻai a me ka volatili mahope o 2000 "ʻaʻole iʻike muaʻia, ua hanaʻia ma loko o ka nui o nā hoʻolaha nui o ka honua a me nā kahakaha noi i nā makahiki i hala aku nei," aʻo "(t) eia ka nele o nā hōʻikeʻike (ma ma ka liʻiliʻi a hiki i kēia lā) ua nui nā hopena o nā kālepa kālā i nā kālepa kūʻai i nā wā kūpono e pili ana i ka hoʻokele waiwai. "
Pehea ka hopena o kaʻike kālā i nā mino liʻiliʻi
ʻO ka nānāʻana i ka hopena o nāʻeke kālā ma nā mea liʻiliʻi, nā mea liʻiliʻi, e like me ke alanini, bismuth , molybdenum a me nā'alela honuaʻole, eʻikeʻia paha nā hopena likeʻole.
Me ka hoʻomauʻana i kekahi mau puke, ua hoʻopuka houʻia e ka Pelekaneʻo Farani a CEPII i kahi pepa hana e nānā ana i keʻano o kaʻikeʻole o ka waiwai i ka macroeconomic uncertainty.
Uaʻike nā mea noiʻiʻo nā mea nui e like me ke gula a me ke kālā,ʻoiaʻiʻo nō ka hana, ua lilo ia i hale mālama pono i nā manawa o ka maopopoʻole. Mālama'ē nā mea kūʻai'ē aʻe i kaʻike i ka macroeconomic uncertainty. ʻO kēia mau manawa kānaluaʻole, e like me ke kaʻina o ka honua ma hope o ka 2007-2007,ʻaʻole i ka hopena o ka ukiukiʻoi aku.
ʻO ka Māhele Kūʻai o nā Kauoha Hua
I ka hopena, ua kākauʻia e David Jacks i ka pepa hanaʻenehana o ka 'Oihana Hoʻonaʻauao Kālepa i ka makahiki 2013 i ke kumu o ka hoʻokele waiwai kumukūʻai ma 30 mau makai kūʻai ma 160 mau makahiki.
Nāʻike a Jacks - ua nui ka piʻiʻana o ka lōʻihi a me ka nui o ka puʻupuʻu waiwai a me ka hopena o ka hopena ma hope o ka hinaʻana o ka Bretton Woods pūnaewele - alakaʻi ia iā ia e noʻonoʻo i nā manawa hoʻolimalima kaulikeʻole e hoʻohui i ka pinepine a me ke kaulike o ka uku kūʻai. .
Ināʻikeʻia ka noiʻiʻana, uaʻike ka nui o nā kumukūʻai no nā metala a me nāʻoihana'ē aʻe iʻoi aku ka nui o ka volatility mai ka makahiki 2000.ʻAʻole kēia ma muli o ka hoʻouluʻana, ka hāʻawiʻoleʻia a me nā kahakai koi, akā e hoʻololi i nā kumukūʻai ma ka mākaʻi'āina honua.
ʻOiai uaʻikeʻia ka hopena o nā mea waiwai hou (nā hope aku, nā huahana, nā waiwai kālā, etc.) i nā makamehanaʻoihana,ʻaʻole i hōʻoiaʻia e lilo kēia mau kumu i mea nui loa.
I ka hopena, ua like ka nui o ka ukiuki ma ke kumukūʻai kūʻai me ka pālahalahaʻana i nā uku kūʻai hoʻohālike. I ka hanaʻana o China i kaʻoi aku o ka loiloi houʻana i ka renminbi, hiki i kēia ke hāʻawi aku i nā mea hou i nā wā e hiki mai ana i ka wā e hiki ai i ka hauʻoli.
Nā kumuhana:
ʻO Gruber,ʻo Iosepa W. a me Robert J. Vigfusson. Nā Ulā Kuʻuna a me ka Volatility a me Correlation o ke Kumukūʻai Kauwai. Papa o na Kiaaina o ka Buke Buke Palani. Nā Pale Kūkākūkā o nāʻAha Pūnaewele. Novema 2012
HKH: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2012/1065/ifdp1065r.pdf
ʻO Dwyer,ʻo Alexandra, George Gardner lāuaʻo Thomas Williams. Nā Huahana Hua'ōlelo Launa -ʻO ka Uila Loaʻa a me ke kālā. Ka Waihona Kūlā o Australia. Bulletin June Quarter 2011.
HKH: http://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2011/jun/pdf/bu-0611-7.pdf
ʻO Joets, Marc, Valerie Mignon a me Tovonony Razafindrabe. Ma muli o ka emiʻole o ke kumukūʻai o nā kumukūʻai, eʻike i kaʻikeʻole i nā mea waiwai? Ka Pepa Hana Pelekane CIPII. March 2015.
HKH: http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2015/wp2015-02.pdf
ʻO Jacks, David S. Mai Boom a Bust: He Typology of Real Commodity Prices in the Long Run. ʻO kaʻenehana aupuni o kaʻike waiwai. Ka Pepa Haʻawina. Malaki 2013.