No ke aha keʻaila halaʻole?
ʻO kaʻailaʻaila kekahi o nā waiwai nui i ka wā e pili ana i ke kālā a me nā geopolitics.
ʻO ia ke kumu o ka hanaʻana a me ka hapanui o nā mālama o ka waiwaihuhu i ka hopena ma kekahi o nā māhele nui loa o ke ao nei,ʻo ka Middle East. Hoʻonui kaʻai, nā poʻe a me nāʻoihana ma ka honua a pau e hilinaʻi ana i nā huaʻaila a me kaʻaila no ka meahuhu e hana ai ka honua a neʻe.
Ma keʻano heʻoihanaʻoihana politika aʻoi aku ka waiwai nui,ʻo ka uku o kaʻaila iʻaila ka hopena i nāʻoihana'ē aʻe. Hoʻokahi'āpana waiwai i paneʻia i nā loli i ka uku o kaʻaila he mau kaulike. He nui nā poʻe e lawelawe ana i kaʻaila a me ka uku haʻahaʻa e hiki ai i kēia mauʻoihana ke hoʻemi i nā kumu kūʻai i mea e maʻalahi ai. ʻO ka hoʻonuiʻana i ka hoʻolālā o ka ikehu e hoʻemi ana i ka uku o nā kūʻai i kūʻaiʻia e hoʻonui ana i ka palena kālā. No nā kānaka kūʻai pāʻani, he mea maikaʻi nā kumukūʻai o nā'enela -ʻo ia hoʻi, ka nui o kaʻike. Eia nō naʻe, no ka poʻe i komo i ka hanaʻaila, kaʻimiʻana a iʻole nā lawelawe no kaʻoihanaʻenehana he uku haʻahaʻa i ka mea'ē aʻe.
Eia kekahi,ʻo ka hopena o ka uku o kaʻaila ma luna o nā mea kūʻai aku,ʻoi aku ka nui ma mua o ka mea hana . No nā mea kūʻai,ʻo ka uku o kaʻaila ma lalo wale nō e pili ana i kahi hapa o kā lākou hana. No nā mea kūʻai , nā haʻawina'enela haʻahaʻa e pā ana i ka nui o kā lākouʻoihana.
Ma nā māhele kūlike oʻAmelika Huipūʻia, nui nā lālā i heluʻia e komo ana ma nāʻano a pau o ka mālaʻaila.
ʻO kēia mauʻoihana kiʻekiʻe nui he mau mea nui o nā hōʻailona e mālama pono ana nā mea kūʻai a me nā mea kālepa i kēlā me kēia lā. No laila, ua hoʻolālā kaʻaila haʻahaʻa i ka hopena maikaʻiʻole i nā kaulike kaulike a me nā kumukūʻai kālā ma keʻano nui. Eia naʻe, ma ka makahiki 2015 a me ka hoʻomakaʻana o ka makahiki 2016, ua puka keʻano kū ma waena o ke kumukūʻai o kaʻaila a me ka meaʻaila. Ua kūʻai aku ka uku o kaʻailaʻaila ma kahi o $ 107 no ka barele i Iune 2014. I kēlā manawa, uaʻoi aku ka uku o ka Energy Select SPDR (XLE), a me ka ETF o nāʻaila hinu ma ka US, ma kahi o $ 101 ma ka pāʻani. I ka mahinaʻo Ianuali 2016,ʻo ke kumukūʻai o NYMEX i ka mahina ma mua ua piʻi aku kaʻaila hinu i ka papa haʻahaʻa mai ka mahina o Mei 2003 i ka loaʻaʻana o ka $ 26.19 no ka pahu i Ianuali 20. Ua hoʻoneʻe ka XLE i lalo me kaʻailaʻaila, ma ka lā i kūʻaiʻia e ka ETF no $ 49.93 ma ka haawina. Eia naʻe, i ka mahina o Mei 2003, ua kūʻai likeʻia kēlā FF e like me nā $ 22 ma ka pāʻani. No laila, ua hanaʻia ka hana o ka XLE i ka hana o kaʻailaʻaila.
ʻO kekahi o nā kumu o ka lag i hiki i ka wā i hana hou kaʻaila i kahi hou āpau i kahi $ 42 i Malaki 2015, ua hoʻihoʻi kokeʻia i kahi $ 60 no ka pahu. Ma hope oʻAukakeʻo 2015, i ka wā i hana hou ai kaʻaila hou i kahi hou hou i kahi $ 37.75, ua hōʻano koke ia i kahi $ 50.
Ua hiki ke kūʻaiʻia ka mālā kūpono i ka hopena o Ianuali no ka loaʻa houʻana o ka waiwai o ka ikehu i ka makahiki 2016. Ua hanaʻia kēia ma keʻano he $ 34.82 ke kumukūʻai o kaʻaila hinu kokoke i kahi lā. 30% ma nā lāʻewalu wale nō. I ka manawa like, ua neʻe ka XLE i $ 7 a 14% paha ma luna aʻe o ka manawa.
ʻO ka laina lalo,ʻo ka uku o nā meaʻaila hinuʻaʻole i hoʻohālikelike pono i ka hana ma kaʻailaʻaila e like me ka noho ponoʻana o ka XLE i ka makahiki 2008 aʻo kaʻaila pono'ī i hoʻokiʻekiʻe loaʻia. Hōʻike mai kēia iā mākou inā ua emi loa ka kumukūʻai o kaʻaila a iʻole ke kumukūʻai o nā meaʻaila i loaʻaʻole i ke kumukūʻai o ke kumukūʻai.
ʻO nā divergences e like me kēia ke hana pinepine i ka manawa. Hoʻopālā pinepine nā mea kālepaʻoihana i nā'eneke eʻimi ana i keʻano keake. Ke hoʻololiʻia ka ukana waiwai, hiki i ka manawa kūpono no ke kalepa ala.
ʻO kēia keʻano o kēlā me kēia mākeke e hoʻopiʻi i kekahi i ka mea e loaʻa ai ka waiwai i nā mea kūʻai aku a kūʻai aku i kekahi. I kēia wā,ʻo ke kūʻaiʻana o ka XLE ETF a me ka kūʻai likeʻana o kaʻaila hou o ka hinu e hoʻokumu i kahi kālepa a iʻole e hoʻolālā paha e hopena i nā hopena kūpono inā e hopuʻia ana ka EDF me ka uku o kaʻaila. ʻO kekahi hui houʻana o kēia kuhihewaʻana paha,ʻo ia ke kumukūʻai o ke kālā kūpono, i ka laulā, hiki ke hāʻule ma muli o ka hoʻonuiʻana o kaʻaila o kaʻaila i ka haʻahaʻa i nā mahina i hala iho nei. ʻO kaʻoiaʻiʻo o nā mea pili i kaʻaila e pili ana i nā pono kaulike e hiki ke hōʻoia i kēia wānana.