Ma hope o ka US Shale Oil Boom a Bust
Mahalo i ka hoʻouluʻana i kaʻaila, ua hilinaʻi ka hilinaʻiʻana i ka laweʻana mai o nāʻaila mai nā haole. ʻO ka US Energy Information Agency e hoʻokau i ka hilinaʻiʻana o US no kaʻaila'ē aʻe i ka 34 pakeneka ma ka 2019.
Mai ke 45 pakeneka i ka 2011, a he 60 pakeneka i ka makahiki 2005. (Source: "2015 Forecast, Energy Information Agency.)
US Shale Boom a me ke Anu
ʻElua mau mea i hoʻoili i ka US oil shale oil. ʻO ka mua,ʻoi aku ka nui o nā kumukūʻai ma luna o $ 90 i ka barela no nā makahikiʻekolu (2011 - 2014). Ua lawa kēia no kaʻaeʻana i kaʻike a me ka hanaʻana o ka'ōhinu e pono ai.
ʻO ka lua, ua hāʻawi nā kumukūʻai haʻawina i nā kūʻokoʻa a me nā mea hoʻoili pono kūʻokoʻa he ikaika nui e hāʻawi aku i nā huiʻaila hinu. ʻO ka nui o nā loina i kokoke kokoke i $ 250 piliona ma ka makahiki 2014. (Source: "Debt and Alive," The Economist, October 10, 2015.)
Hoʻonuiʻia ka hoʻonuiʻana i ka hoʻonuiʻana i nā kumukūʻai hoʻolimalima. ʻO nā kumukūʻai no ke Komohana Komohana ua hāʻuleʻo Crude mai $ 106 / pahu i ka mahinaʻo June 2014 a $ 32.10 he pahu i ka lā 7 o Ianuali, 2016. Ua like ia me ka haʻahaʻa i ka wā o ka Great Recession ($ 30.28 i ka lā 23 o Kepakemapa 2008). No ka mea hou aku, e nānā i nā Kino Gas i ka 2008 .
Ua hana maoliʻia ka hoʻolālāʻana o ka US ma keʻano nui.
ʻAʻole. Uaʻoi aku kaʻino o ka ukiuki kālā ma nā mea kūʻai kālepa. Hoʻowaiwai lākou i nā kākoʻo o kaʻaila i nā palena kūʻai i like me ka mākele koho . Hiki i kēlā manaʻo ke hana iā lākou e hōʻemi i nā kumukūʻai i ka wā pōkole, a kēnā iā lākou i lalo i kahi koena. Ua hana like lākou i ka makahiki 2008. Ma mua o ka hoʻokuʻuʻana i nā kumukūʻai, ua hana lākou i kahi moa waiwai , hoʻolimalima ka uku a hiki i kahi $ 145 he barela mua i ka makahiki 2008.
ʻO kekahi kumu kumu o ka nui o nā kumukūʻai o ka hoʻomauʻana o nā mea hana i kaʻaila. Ua lilo lākou i mea maikaʻi ma keʻokiʻana i ka uku o ka hoʻonuiʻiaʻana o ka nui. Ua kālepa aku kā lākou poʻe kālepa i kā lākou hōʻai'ē inā lōʻihi ka emiʻana o ka huina kālā. He nui nā mea hana i kūʻai aku i ko lākouʻaila ma ke kūʻai aku i ka wā kūʻai ke kiʻekiʻe ka uku. Nā mea i paʻa i ka waiwai. No ka mālamaʻana i ka māhele kūʻaiʻokoʻa, ua hoʻomau pūʻo OPEC i kaʻaila paila. Ma keʻano maʻamau, eʻokiʻoki i ka hana i ka hāʻuleʻana o nā kumukūʻai. ("ʻOiaiʻo kaʻaila e hoʻomau ana i ka hāʻuleʻana,ʻaʻohe mea e holo ana," i ka Wall Street Journal, December 7, 2015.)
Hoʻopauʻia ka'ōuli a me ka holomua o ka holomua. ʻO ka mea mua, hoʻohana nā waihona i nā'enelaʻaila i mea pale. E like me ka hāʻuleʻana o nā kumukūʻai, pēlā nō ka waiwai o ka palekana. Ma muli o ka hopena, ua lilo nā mea he lehulehu i "lilo i lalo." Ua like nā mea like i nā mea home aku i ka manawa o ka hoʻokele mokulele . Ma muli o ka hopena,ʻaʻole hoʻokomo nā drille i nā kolepa i ka wikiwiki e like me nā mea i hana muaʻia. (Source: "US Shale Juggernaut Hōʻike i nā Hōʻailona Loa," Ka Wall Street Journal,ʻOkakopa 5, 2017.)
ʻO ka lua,ʻo ka Fed e hoʻonui ana i ka huina kālā . Ua emi iki ka poʻe eʻalo nei i ka hōʻai'ē. ʻO ka hopena, he nui nā lālā e paila i kaʻaila nui no ka hoʻolakoʻana i ke kālā kūpono e uku ai i kā lākou uku kālā. E hana lākou i kēia ma muli o ke kumu kūʻaiʻole o nā kumukūʻai, a ināʻaʻole lākou e pono hou.
ʻO nā kamaliʻi liʻiliʻi, e like me Sandridge Energy Inc., Energy XXI, a me Halcón Resources, hoʻohana lākou i 40 pakeneka o ka loaʻa o ka makahiki i hala e mālama i nā uku. (Ke kumu: "Nā Lulu Lūpū Manu'Elepaʻi Makahiki," ka Wall Street Journal, Ianuali 11, 2016.)
ʻO ke kolu, ua ukuʻia nāʻaelike e hiki mai ana i kēia manawa a hikiʻole i ka nui o nā pupuhi ke hoʻomau i ka hoʻomoeʻana. I ka mahinaʻoʻOkakopa 2015, e pili ana i ka hapalua e noho palaualelo. Ua waiho muaʻia nā Dozens no ka banekorupa, a ua hoʻokuʻuʻia he 55,000 mau kānaka. Akā,ʻo ka EIA ka wānana mua e ala hou ana nā kumukūʻai ma ka manawa . (Source: "Nalu Paʻa i Hoʻoulu i ka Pōʻemi Pōʻalu e Pakele," i ka Wall Street Journal September 24, 2015).
US Shale Oil Reserves
ʻO ka Bakken Field ma North Dakota a me Montana ka meaʻoi loa o ka hoʻouluʻana i kaʻaila kele. ʻO ka māla he mau papa lepoʻeleʻele, heʻaila e kani ana iʻelua mile ma lalo.
Ua like ka nui o ka māla o West Virginia a ua hoʻopukaʻia he 770,000 mauʻaila o kaʻaila i ka lā (e like me ka mahina o Dekemaba 2012). ʻOiai ka hoʻomakaʻana o ka hoʻomohalaʻana i ka makahiki 2006, ua pālua ka paeʻana i nā makahikiʻelua wale nō. I kēia wā, 95 pakeneka o ka hana mai nā pūnāwai. ʻO ka hopena, ua nui aku kaʻaila aʻe o ka North Dakota i ka Alaska a ua paniʻo ia i nā kālāʻelua miliona i ka lā i hanaʻia e Texas. I loko o 20 mau makahiki, hiki i ka nui o nā pūnāwai ke piʻi mai ka 8,000 o nā manawa i ka 40,000. ʻO kahi o ke kumu no ka hoʻonuiʻana,ʻo ia kēlā me kēia puna puna ke maloʻo ma hope oʻelua makahiki. ʻO ia no ka hoʻopaʻaʻia o kaʻaila i loko o nāʻekeʻaʻole e lawe i kaʻaila nui e like me nā pūnāwai kahiko. Eia naʻe, i ka nui, hiki i ka māla ke kokoke iʻehā pākeke baila o kaʻaila. (Source: "Bakken e hoʻomohalaʻia ai kaʻaila hinu a me ka hoʻomehana honua e hoʻohālikelike ana i nā hanana i loko o ka Barnett," EIA, 2 Nowemapa, 2011. "Bakken i hōʻailona e like me ke koi no ka US Oil Spilling Crown," CNBC, Malaki 23, 2013.)
ʻO ka ea Eagle Ford ma Texas ua loaʻa 750,000 barela / lā mai ka 2011, kokoke i nā mea a pau mai nā pūnāwai. Uaʻikeʻia ka US Geological Survey e 853 miliona mau pāleka ma nā mea i hoʻomaopopoʻoleʻia. Ke huli neiʻo Drillers no kaʻaila a me ke kinoea maoli. (Source: "Keʻano o ka hōʻailona Eagle Ford e hoʻonui i ka huliʻana i ka wai a me nā wai'eneea maoli," EIS, Nowemapa 2011.)
ʻO kaʻoihana Utica ma Ohaona he wahi 1.3 a me 5.5 piliona baila o kaʻaila. Ke hana neiʻo Ohio i 5 miliona mauʻailaʻaila i ka makahiki. I kēia manawa, ke'ōhinuʻia nei kaʻaila. (Source: "ʻO kaʻaila a me ka hoʻomehana honua kino ma Ohio i ka wā e piʻi ai," EIS, Setema 2011.)
ʻO ka palena nuiʻo US keʻanoʻo Monterey Shale ma kahi kokoke i Bakersfield, Kaleponi. ʻEhā manawa o kaʻaila e like me ka Bakken Field ma North Dakota. ʻO kahi 1,750 mile mile kahi i loaʻa 15.4 bila barla o kaʻaila - e pili ana i 2/3 o nā waihona mālama'āina. ʻOi kaʻoi aku o ka paʻakikī o kaʻaila o Kaleponi ma waho o ka Bakken, a uaʻoi aku ka kū'ē o nā hui kaiaulu. ʻO ia ke kumu no ka mea e koiʻia ana kahiʻoihana hoʻonaʻauao iʻoi aku ka nui o ka haʻalulu a hohonu hohonu. ʻO ia ke kuleana i kahi moku'āina e pili ana i ka hewa o San Andreas, a uaʻoi aku ka nui o kona mau kuleana ma mua o kāna mau hoʻoili'āina maikaʻi. (Source:ʻO ka HuiʻEleʻele Weta E Maanei I Nānā Ikai i loko, "The New York Times, Feb. 4, 2013.)
US Shale Hui Hui
ʻO nāʻoihanaʻaila hinuʻelima iʻoi aku -ʻo EOG Resources, Anadarko Petroleum, Apache Corp., Chesapeake Energy, a me nā'Āina Loawai - ua pahūʻia he 10% o ka hōʻailona o ka US ma ka makahiki 2014.ʻOiai he nui nā kamaliʻiʻaila i lawe i ka hōʻai'ē e lilo i ka banekorupa, ʻO kēia mau meaʻelima paha e ola, ināʻaʻole pōmaikaʻi. (Source: "Nānā Mea HoʻomākaukauʻOihana Hui Hou," Ka Wall Street Journal, Malaki 14-15, 2015.)